Title: The Connection Between Global Warming and Heatwaves: A Local Focus on Anticyclones
As the world continues to grapple with the complexities of global warming, the need to model globally and predict locally is more crucial than ever. The recent El Niño of 2023 has brought warm temperatures to many parts of the globe, while cooler temperatures persist in areas such as Pakistan, India, and West Bengal. However, global warming is also creating unique local features that can modulate heatwaves, even on cooler background temperatures.
One such feature is the anticyclone, a weather pattern that brings dry and hot weather to many parts of India during the pre-monsoon season. Anticyclones are natural seasonal features that occur when strong westerly and easterly jets generate an anticyclonic pattern over the Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent. These anticyclones can bring longer-lasting and more intense heatwaves when combined with the warming effects of El Niño and the unexplained warming of 2023.
The connection between global warming and anticyclones is an important area of study for predicting and mitigating the impact of heatwaves. While anticyclones are not unusual in and of themselves, their persistence and strength during the pre-monsoon season can have significant implications for heatwave intensity and duration.
To prepare for and manage heatwaves, accurate early-warning systems are essential. The World Climate Research Program under the World Meteorological Organisation has developed a three-step approach called the ‘ready-set-go’ system. This approach includes seasonal outlooks, subseasonal predictions, and short- to medium-range forecasts to help decision-makers prepare for and respond to heatwaves.
India, in particular, has invested heavily in subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions and has made impressive progress in improving the accuracy of predictions. However, there is still work to be done in building resilience for the future by better predicting the trajectory of the weather at every location over India.
In conclusion, the connection between global warming and anticyclones is a complex and critical area of study for predicting and managing heatwaves. While anticyclones are natural seasonal features, their persistence and strength during the pre-monsoon season can have significant implications for heatwave intensity and duration. Accurate early-warning systems, such as the ‘ready-set-go’ system, are essential for preparing for and responding to heatwaves. With ongoing investment in S2S predictions and a focus on building resilience for the future, there is hope for improved heatwave prediction and management in India and beyond.